Announcement on the offline "communication itinerary card" service

In order to thoroughly implement the decisions and arrangements of the Party Central Committee and the State Council on further optimizing the prevention and control measures of the new coronavirus epidemic and scientifically and accurately carry out prevention and control work, in accordance with the relevant requirements of the Joint Prevention and Control Mechanism Comprehensive Group of the State Council, it will be officially offline from 0:00 on December 13 "Communication itinerary card" service . "Communication itinerary card" SMS, web pages, WeChat applet, Alipay applet, APP and other inquiry channels will be offline simultaneously.

But when will the epidemic reach its peak of infection?

When will it level off?

Netizens are also very concerned

On December 9, at the media meeting of Academician Zhong Nanshan’s team, Yang Zifeng, one of Academician Zhong Nanshan’s teams, deputy director of the Guangzhou Institute of Respiratory Health and deputy director of the State Key Laboratory of Respiratory Diseases, said that using transmission dynamics models and combining artificial intelligence algorithms , can achieve scientific early warning and prediction of the epidemic.

Based on comprehensive research and judgment, first, the model shows that the peak number of daily infections will occur at the end of January and February next year . Based on this, the country also has many peak reduction measures. Second, it is believed that it will enter a relatively stable stage in early to early March .

Zhong Ming, director of the Department of Critical Care Medicine at Zhongshan Hospital Affiliated to Fudan University, said in an interview that home isolation for COVID-19 positive patients actually means that COVID-19 will spread in society, but it is also an important step in optimizing epidemic prevention measures.

It is expected that the trend of the new crown epidemic will reach the peak of infection within one month . But when it ends after that, the model becomes more complicated. The reason is that viral infection and recovery do not occur at the same time.

From the perspective of medical institutions, infections at the same time will cause the gathering of people and strain medical resources; therefore, orderly and gradual medical treatment can enable medical institutions to have stronger response capabilities, but this cycle will also be lengthened. .

Li Tong, chief physician of the Department of Infectious Diseases at Beijing You'an Hospital and a medical expert at Xiaotangshan Fangcang Hospital, once pointed out that the risk of reinfection after infection is mainly related to one's own immunity and the interval. " After being infected, you definitely don't have to worry about reinfection within half a year . The elderly, infants and young children are at higher risk of reinfection, but it is basically three months or six months after the infection. For young people and people with normal immune function, Basically, the risk of reinfection within six months is very low , so you don’t have to worry about it.”

The risk of reinfection is also related to how well the virus mutates further. Li Tong once pointed out that in the future, the more obvious the virus will mutate, the greater the risk of reinfection.

In addition to age, underlying diseases and other conditions, vaccination has become the most important "variable" in reducing the harm of the new coronavirus. Li Dong also emphasized that vaccination before infection or vaccination after recovery from infection can minimize the risk of reinfection .